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Election 2001: What the experts think

Predictions, Predictions: the poll of pollsters

Thinking of having a flutter of size of the majority. We asked pollsters, psephologists, bookmakers and commentators for their personal predictions

Observer Election Special

Guardian Unlimited Politics

William Hague will be disappointed to hear that there were no takers in The Observer's poll of pollsters and pundits for a shock Conservative victory, with the broad consensus being a Labour majority of around 120 on a slightly reduced turnout, though both Peter Kellner and Richard Burkholder of Gallup were among those who thought Labour likely to win by a landslide on the scale of 1997. Nobody even tipped the Conservatives to reduce Tony Blair to a double-figure majority.

As well as asking participants to predict the overall result, the Tory and LibDem performance and the turnout, we also asked for 'wildcard' prediction of a possible surprise for voters in either the result or the campaign. Could Iain Duncan Smith really follow Michael Portillo in missing out on a Tory leadership bid by losing his 5174 vote majority over Labour in Chingford? Andy Clifton of Ladbrokes wouldn't bet against it.

Peter Kellner, The Observer's polls expert
Labour majority 150
Conservatives 177 seats, LibDems 48 seats
Turnout: 68%
Surprise: "A close fight for Old Bexley and Sidcup (Conservative majority 3569) without Ted Heath's personal vote"

Bob Worcester, Chairman, MORI
Labour majority 120
Conservatives: 215 seats LibDems: 32 seats
Turnout: 66%
Surprise: "Arthur Scargill to win Hartlepool. That would be a surprise"

Graham Sharpe, William Hill
Labour majority 125
Conservatives: 190 LibDems: 44
Turnout: 65%
Surprise: "Martin Bell to turn up somewhere in something other than a white suit".

Andy Clifton, General Election odds compiler for Ladbrokes
Labour majority 119
Conservatives: 208 seats LibDems: 33 seats
Turnout: 67%
Surprise: "Despite strong support for Iain Duncan Smith in the betting for next Tory leader, he will struggle to keep his seat".

Richard Burkholder, Research Director, Gallup
Labour majority 175
Conservatives: 183 seats, LibDems: 31 seats
Turnout: 66%
Surprise: "Labour would increase its majority but will be hit by heavy abstentions among 18-35 year olds which will allow the Tories to make modest gains mainly at the LibDems expense".

John Curtice, Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University
Labour majority 105
Conservatives: 212 LibDems: 35
Turnout: 67%
Surprise: "A rise in William Hague's personal ratings"

Ben Pimlott, Warden and Professor of Politics, Goldsmiths College
Labour majority: 120
Conservatives: 200 LibDems: 50
Turnout: 70%
Surprise: "The key question is whether the Tories can maintain their discipline or whether they fall apart and head towards meltdown. If the Tories can hold together, they could show that Labour's huge lead is much softer than people think. That could create a Labour panic in the final week, as happened with the Tory party in 1987, even though their victory would not really be in doubt".

Peter Wilby, Editor, New Statesman
Labour majority of between 150 and 200
Conservatives: Fewer than 200 seats LibDems: Between 40 and 50 seats
Turnout: Below 70%
Surprise: "Some independents outside the main parties will win seats".

Mark Seddon, Editor of Tribune
Labour majority 130
Conservatives: 190 LibDems: 35
Turnout: 66%
Surprise: "Socialism in one county: Buckinghamshire turns red"

Nick Cohen, Observer columnist
Labour majority 100
Conservatives: 230 LibDems: 50
Turnout could be catastrophic at around 63% and so could render all predictions and polls worthless.
Surprise: "Richard Taylor, the independent anti-NHS privatisation candidate will take Wyre Forest from New Labour".

John Stevens, pro-Euro Conservative
Labour majority 110-115
Conservatives: 210 LibDems: 38
Turnout: 66-67%
Surprise: "Of course, I'd like to see Tony Blair argue for the Euro, but that would astonish me. If he did, Michael Heseltine would have to very reluctantly say 'Vote Labour'".