- The Observer,
- Sunday October 8, 2000
With joyous small ceremonies there'll be a rush of flag-raising over embassies and, if all goes well, Tito's ghost, which haunts Manhattan's East River, will finally be laid to rest.
That ghost is, of course, the old Yugoslavia that died at the hands of Slobodan Milosevic. Thanks to a bizarre series of diplomatic manoeuvrings the old Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia, which stretched from the Alpine hills of Slovenia to the dry plains of Macedonia, still exists as a 'member' of the United Nations. The East River and the UN's Palais des Nations in Geneva are the last places on Earth where the old red-starred flag of Tito's country still flies.
Not for long. Soon, no doubt, President Kostunica's Yugoslavia will have sorted out its status along with its re-entry into the plethora of international bodies - primarily the financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Western Ministers should also soon begin signing cheques for the millions of dollars earmarked for a post-Milosevic Serbia under the terms of the Stability Pact, intended to aid and integrate all of the Balkan states.
So far so good. But, then a few weeks or months down the line the country will wake with a sore head. The empty coffers, the factories good for nothing but scrap, the small farmers who find it hard to compete in a global market. And, of course, the equally tough questions of Kosovo and responsibility for almost a decade of wars.
In the short term Kostunica and his supporters will have to clear out the institutions of all the vestiges of the ancien regime . Because of the curious nature of Yugoslavia's constitutional set-up Milosevic's allies still control the parliament, government and presidency of Serbia. The recent elections were for the Yugoslav parliament and presidency. But as Milosevic and all his friends began to congratulate Kostunica on his victory on Friday, it began to look suspiciously as if many of them intended to try to hang on to their posts.
Until Friday it had been assumed that once Milosevic had gone the whole apparatus of state he had created would go with him. Now, the situation is less clear, despite the obvious power vacuum.
In principle, President Kostunica should soon be able to lay the ghost of Montenegrin secessionism because most Montenegrins were not anti-Yugoslav as much as anti-Milosevic. But this may be far more difficult than it at first appeared, because Kostunica and his supporters need the votes of the Montenegrin party that used to support Milosevic in the federal parliament if they are to form the next Yugoslav Government. They may succeed but if they do, they will alienate the pro-Western President of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic.
As the economists begin to examine the accounts of Serbian industry, they will discover not only the mass of debt but also that, as Serbia is rapidly reintegrated into the rest of Europe, most of it will no longer be able to compete. Ten years ago, for example, there was little to choose between a Yugo car and a Czech Skoda. Now Skodas compete on an equal footing with cars from the world's top manufacturers but the old Zastava factory which makes Yugos produces barely 5,000 a year. Unemployment will rise. Sanctions and isolation have impoverished Serbia but they have also helped protect uncompetitive domestic production. That shield will go.
The war criminals issue is one that is bound to dog Kostunica. A lawyer by training, he has denounced the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague as a 'monstrous institution' and regards it as a political court set up to condemn Serbs. The question is whether the West will decide to keep quiet over the issue or continue to demand that Serbia hand over Milosevic.
Until Friday it looked as though Milosevic was a hunted man. Then he met Kostunica, congratulated him on his victory and said that he intended to remain as head of the Socialist Party of Serbia and continue in political life. If he does this, with Kostunica's blessing - and if other high-level indictees, including the President of Serbia, Milan Milutinovic, do the same thing - then a frost may descend on relations between Serbia and the West. So far it is too early to say: yesterday morning opposition sources said that they intended to press criminal charges against Milosevic for ordering the police to fire on demonstrators last Thursday.
In Belgrade, human rights activists are divided as to what the recent developments mean. Natasa Kandic, director of the Humanitarian Law Centre, says that she believes the international community 'will not stop talking about the issue'. Others are more sceptical, fearing that in their rush to welcome back Serbia to the fold of normal countries the whole question will simply be swept under the carpet.
Kosovo is another issue that is bound to help end the Kostunica honeymoon. Kostunica has said that Nato troops are in Kosovo thanks to Milosevic. He has emphasised that Kosovo is part of Serbia and he intends to seek its return. In fact, whatever any Serbian leader says, Kosovo's Albanians will never agree to any association with Belgrade again, and in the short-term attacks on Kosovo Serbs may increase lest anyone think that a new spirit of reconciliation is abroad.
Until the early hours of yesterday morning tens of thousands were still literally dancing in the streets of Belgrade. Serbia has changed and is changing. But, over the next few weeks and months we may find that it has changed less than expected.
Tim Judah is the author of The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia
Dictators: Where are they now?
Jean-Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier
Former dictator of Haiti, Duvalier fled in 1986, snatching millions of dollars from the Central Bank. Moved to the French Riviera and lived in style with his wife and two children until the money, and the wife, ran out. In 1994, a broke Duvalier downsized to a small bungalow. He went to ground in 1995, but is still believed to be in France.
Raoul Cedras
Another Haitian autocrat, Cédras ruled for three years and was responsible for up to 2,000 deaths. In 1994, in a US-brokered deal, he fled to Panama, where he lives in luxury in a sea-view apartment. When Cédras left, he was accompanied by his wife and three children. As part of the deal negotiated by Jimmy Carter, the Americans agreed to pay Cédras $5,000 a month.
Alfredo Stroessner, known as 'El Generalissimo'.
A butcher and torturer, Stroessner ruled Paraguay for 35 years. He came to power with a coup until his reign was ended by a military uprising in 1989. Stroessner, 76 at the time, was given 12 hours to leave and was granted asylum by Brazil. He lives in a mansion in an upmarket area of Brasilia, the country's federal capital.
Manuel Noriega, 'Old Pineapple Face'.
Panama's former dictator is in a Florida jail. He has served 11 years of a 40-year sentence for drug trafficking, conspiracy and racketeering. Once a CIA informant, relations between Noriega and the United States soured over his drug-running.Captured by the US in 1989.
Mengistu Haile Mariam
Ethiopia's former dictator, who ruled from 1974 to 1991. After he overthrew the Ethiopian Emperor, his 'Red Terror' led to thousands of deaths. Later policies resulted in the deaths of hundreds and thousands of Ethiopians through war and famine. Mengistu resigned in 1991 and fled to Zimbabwe and lives a handsome existence on Robert Mugabe handouts.
Idi Amin
Uganda's dictator from 1971 to 1979, Amin was responsible for the murder of an average of 7,000 Ugandans every week under his rule. Amin expelled the entire population of Ugandan Indians, causing the country's economy to fall apart. In 1979, Amin was dethroned by a Tanzanian-backed invasion. He was given refuge by Saudi Arabia and is now a devout Muslim. He lives with his wife in a coastal villa and takes a daily swim.
