- guardian.co.uk, Sunday April 13 2003 05.16 BST
As the shroud of secrecy around the US administration's post-war plans begin to lift, it is clear that preparations for the post-conflict phase have been playing catch up from day one. Retired Army Lieutenant General Jay Garner, head of the Pentagon's Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, working with a dedicated staff of two hundred and thirty, has been in operation for just over two months. Compare this to the many months of planning for the military campaign. The central lesson of previous post-conflict reconstruction efforts from Afghanistan to Kosovo is that the earlier plans are in place the greater the chances of success. Clearly, this lesson was not captured in time for Iraq. But the question now is whether the post-war planners' will learn the broader lessons of reconstruction elsewhere, which can facilitate a more strategic and less ad-hoc approach to reconstruction.
In Iraq, as in any post-conflict environment, security will be the pre-eminent and most immediate challenge. The immediate need for order dictates an ongoing U.S. and UK military presence, at least in the short term, to confront the remnants of Saddam's forces on the one hand and to temporarily fill the public security gap on the other. How effectively these constabulary tasks will be carried out depend on many factors, including the level of resistance remaining at the end of the war. If there is significant resistance facing coalition forces, the military will require greater force protection and would be reluctant to involve itself in policing operations. With a dearth of effective civilian policing capacities this does not bode well for effective public security. In the medium-term as the situation stabilizes there will be less of a need (and political desire) for elite combat forces to continue in this role to any great extent, especially at a cost of $220,000 per U.S. soldier per annum. It will be important for the U.S. and the UK to engage their European and other allies to assist with the provision of gendarmerie forces in this second phase.
Reconstructing Iraq's economy requires urgent attention to be paid to Iraq's financial obligations, specifically its foreign debt (estimated at $383 billion) if the process is not to be held back by creditors scrambling for any Iraqi funds. Saddling a fledgling interim administration with the vast debt accumulated by Saddam will cripple any progress towards recovery yet removing this impediment could be politically divisive, especially since France and Russia are two of the biggest creditors. The way forward is to call an immediate debt restructuring conference, which would provide an opportunity for international creditors and sovereign claimants to agree to a moratorium on Iraq's external debt which would create some breathing space for the recovery efforts.
On the contentious question of who governs Iraq, the US administration is creating structures to handle the immediate post-conflict period but the transitions and timelines are opaque. The Pentagon has failed thus far to shake the impression that a longer term military occupation is planned. Furthermore, the Pentagon's support for Ahmed Chalabi, is not beneficial. The perception of a hand picked leader-in-waiting only adds to the speculation about long-term U.S. intentions. Post-war Afghanistan has shown that, however capable a candidate may be, external support does not confer internal legitimacy and in fact detracts from local ownership of the process. The assassination attempts on Hamid Karzai's and the need for twenty-four hour protection speaks volumes about his acceptance.
Whilst the US has blocked any extensive UN role in the immediate reconstruction phase, there are elements in the immediate reconstitution effort where the UN role will still be critical. The oil for food program must be maintained at least in the short term, as a distribution mechanism and to provide Iraq with some financial liquidity. A Security Council Resolution is needed to cease payments through the program to the United Nations Compensation Commission (UNCC) relating to unsettled Gulf War-related compensation claims. There are currently $172 billion in claims before the UNCC and $27 billion in settled claims still owed. These claims must be resolved to avoud Iraq's oil revenues being tied up in paying back these compensation claims.
The UN is also essential to confer a degree of political credibility on the reconstruction process and also to draw key multipliers to these efforts. The coalition would benefit from casting a wider net to capture international expertise. As diplomatic bridge-building continues opportunities for greater UN involvement in the processes should continue to emerge over time.
The complexity of post-war nation-building shows that the post-conflict reconstruction of Iraq will not stand or fall on any one single issue. However, two final considerations in particular could greatly benefit the overall effort to win the peace.
Firstly, high visibility projects that demonstrate quick and tangible results from the outset are needed to jumpstart the process and build some early momentum. Paying the salaries of teachers and nurses to allow the schools and hospitals to function - something the U.S Administration intends to do - will have a immediate impact by helping to restore a degree of normalcy to the daily lives of the Iraqi people. Once the looting dies down, salvaging local police capacities and partnering them with coalition forces in policing tasks would send another highly visible message to the people in the street.
Second, the United States administration must become more transparent in its activities and communicate as never before to build bridges with governments and publics alike to galvanise international support, and draw the international community into the process.
Frederick D. Barton is Co-Director of the Post Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC. Paul Flach is a Researcher for the the Post Conflict Reconstruction Project at CSIS working on. For more information on the Post Conflict Reconstruction Project visit www.csis.org
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Email Observer site editor Sunder Katwala at observer@guardianunlimited.co.uk with comments on articles or ideas for future pieces. You can write to the author of this piece at PFlach@csis.org.
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