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- The Observer,
- Sunday June 10 2001
Friday's contest was between a gladiator and nine dwarfs. The outcome was never in doubt, merely the size of Khatami's victory. The polls were extended by up to five hours to allow the electors to cast their ballots. Thirty-five million of the 42 million eligible, 83 per cent, did. The turnout was slightly higher than at the last election four years ago, and it appears that around 77 per cent voted for Khatami, 8 per cent more than before.
All this was despite the state-owned television and radio, run by conservatives, downplaying the election by restricting coverage. But the media widely recognised the outcome as pivotal. The pro-Khatami newspapers hailed the 'victory of democracy'. The independent Iran News said: 'The battleship of reforms is here to stay.' Even state-run Tehran Radio called the vote and turnout 'epic'.
High among the political assets of Khatami is his common touch: his effortless charm, his ready smile - a contrast with the dour expression of most clerical leaders. Equally striking is his candour. He conceded 'weaknesses' and 'shortcomings' at a press conference last week. Above all, in 57-year-old Khatami Iran has found a President who has bridged the gap between generations, between those who remember their days under the Shah's oppressive dictatorship, and those who never knew the ancient regime.
He is probably the only high-profile cleric who has a rapport with the country's youth. At last week's youth rally in Tehran, the audience greeted him as if he were a pop star. 'If young people get alienated from Khatami they will be alienated from the system,' said Professor Sadiq Zibakalam, of Tehran University. 'And [that] could lead to violence.'
During the brief election campaign Khatami reiterated his reformist platform: democracy, civil society, transparency, and rule of law. 'There is no other solution but to establish and strengthen democracy in this country at its roots,' he told a rare election rally last week. 'The destiny of all peoples shows that democracy is the wish of every one.'
When Khatami was first elected President in 1997, he had to work with a conservative-dominated parliament. This changed in the first round of the parliamentary poll in March 2000. Heady with victory, reformist newspapers went on the offensive.
'Daily reports in the press about political violence and corruption attracted a huge readership and severely undermined the position of the conservatives,' said Saeed Barzin, an Iranian analyst. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme authority in Iran, was worried and got the judiciary to curb the reformist press, and thus the legislature and executive, slowing the speed of reform. After disturbances in Tehran, he warned that Western powers were behind plans to bring down the Islamic system in Iran.
But, despite the seesaw battle between reformers and conservatives, key institutions in Iran are slowly being made accountable, and abuses by hardline intelligence and security operatives and others are being monitored vigilantly. Efforts to create a democratic political culture are afoot. It was significant that no presidential hopeful spoke against greater personal liberties.
Now that Khatami is in for the next four years, public attention will soon turn to the economy. Firm petroleum prices have enabled the Khatami government to reduce its foreign debts, the jobless rate is officially 17 per cent ( unofficially 30 per cent), and inflation has been 18 per cent over the past three years. The privatisation programme is faltering due to lack of private capital.
The $10 billion spent annually on state subsidies continues to drain the public exchequer and has a damaging impact on the economy. Khatami will have to continue to open up Iran to joint ventures with foreign companies, a policy backed by parliament and Ayatollah Khamenei.
However, US companies are barred from investing in Iran's oil and gas industry. Indeed, Washington's Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (1996), which prohibits companies and individuals worldwide from investing in Iran and Libya and which is to lapse in August, is likely to be extended by five years.
Holding free and fair elections with a turnout that is the envy of British and American politicians is still no guarantee for a regime trying to win the goodwill of the US. And without that goodwill, the millions who thronged the polling stations last week may well be disappointed.
Dilip Hiro is the author of 'Neighbours not Friends: Iraq and Iran' .
