- guardian.co.uk, Sunday November 17 2002 16.18 GMT
Many Greek Cypriots are worried that they are being pushed too fast and towards a bad solution. Some appear almost caught by surprise at the rapid build-up of international attention - not least due to the ineffectual negotiations between Cyprus President Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash since January this year.
Just two days before the UN plan was published, Clerides was arguing that they should be delayed until after Cyprus's presidential elections due in February and emphasising that Cyprus will not trade European accession for a bad deal on reunification. Since then he has declared himself ready for a historic compromise. But even the optimistic George Vassiliou, chief negotiator with the EU, is not entirely positive: "The timing is unfortunate, no doubt" he says "people are worried about the solution but they clearly want a solution".
And others are much more negative. "It is unfair to say the Greek Cypriots have four weeks to reach an agreement" says Tassos Papadopoulos, leader of the centre-right Democratic party and strong front runner in the presidential campaign. "It is a window of opportunity only if a dilemma is put before the Greek Cypriots" he continues "but it is a concocted, forced dilemma to tell us we must decide now".
Much of this defensiveness, observers say, is positioning in advance of negotiations and attempts to draw lines in the sand. Change and painful concessions are looming and the Greek Cypriots are not expected to like the inevitable compromise solution. Papadopoulos asserts that in the face of the Turkish occupation a solution cannot be fair "so we seek a viable solution". Raising the stakes, he insists that "if what Clerides and Denktash agree violates individual rights, for example on property, the individual will still have the right of recourse to the European Court [to challenge the settlement]".
If a deal is struck, Clerides will be looking for the support of all the party leaders in the National Council, a key advisory body. Some question whether Papadopoulos might turn it into an election issue - although if an agreement is reached fast enough, the elections would be cancelled, with new elections later for a federal President for the whole island.
Curiously, Papadopoulos has the support of the large Cyprus Communist Party, Akel, in his election campaign - a Faustian deal, says one observer, to bring Akel into government. But Akel has always been generally more pro-settlement and its support will be crucial in gaining public acceptance for any solution. Senior Akel party member, Andros Kyprianou, while concerned about a possible bad deal, acknowledges that with the UN plan out "we will concentrate all attention on the content of the plan".
Opinions in Cyprus are also mixed as to whether Turkey is finally ready to do a deal. Erdogan, the AKP leader, has made a number of positive statements about the need for negotiations to reach a deal. But Greek Cypriots were pleased and then disappointed when immediately after the elections, Erdogan indicated his support for a Belgian-style solution i.e. a single federal state, only to insist a day or two later he was misinterpreted and that the solution must be based on two states (i.e. recognition of northern Cyprus). The Cypriot assumption is that he was got at by the Ministry of foreign affairs and/or the army. George Vassiliou is not surprised at this switch "the policy of the Turkish establishment has insisted on two states. They know this isn't leading anywhere but they have got the facts of that policy. It is two steps forward, one step back".
Turkish Cypriot leaders do not yet sound ready to compromise. Tahsin Ertugruloglu, responsible for foreign affairs and defence in Denktash's government, is unashamedly hardline and obdurate: "Our views are what they were earlier. We find ourselves being told by the EU and everyone else 'hurry up, time is short'. Basically, that's tough luck. We had nothing to do with this calendar or application. Cyprus has not applied. Greek Cyprus has applied and is not entitled to speak on behalf of Turkish Cyprus".
Despite the uncompromising tone, it is generally expected that Denktash will follow whatever line comes from Ankara - though it is also seen as vital that Denktash signs up to a deal given his popularity in Turkey itself. And some will quietly admit that an agreement on principles by December could be possible.
In fact, it is the leaders of the Turkish Cypriot opposition parties who sound closest to the views of the international community. They appear to be the most positive on the chances the next month offers and most ready to compromise. They, of course, are not in the negotiations but they do strongly reflect underlying public opinion in northern Cyprus.
Mehmet Ali Talat, President of the left-wing Republican Turkish Party (CTP), says he is an optimist "because now it is an international and European problem. The solution to the problem, all the parameters are on the table, known. The time is right". It is also he says the only time for the EU and UN to get concessions from the Greek Cypriot side.
Turkish Cypriot business and NGOs joined forces in June to issue a strong statement in favour of a compromise settlement and joining the EU. Ertugruloglu calls it a conspiracy "they meet with whoever their masters are, Brussels, Athens, South Cyprus, actively involved in a conspiracy to get rid of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the President, and as Cypriots enter the EU". But public opinion is clearly not on his side.
Strong external pressure will be needed if the two sides are to come to a rapid solution - and Greece has an important role to play here too. But despite complaints at the short timescale, it is generally agreed that all the key issues and likely solutions are well-known, with the most sensitive being sovereignty, property and territory, and security.
Another highly controversial issue, not directly confronted in the UN plan, is that of the Turkish settlers in northern Cyprus, thought to number as many as 120,000 out of the total population of 200,000 in the North, though the figures are highly contentious. Honorary president of the Greek Cypriot Social Democrats, Vassos Lyssarides, calls this deliberate policy of demographic change "a war crime, a crime against humanity". Many Greek Cypriots call for financial incentives to be given for the settlers to return to Turkey but as one observer says it is a "pipe dream" that all the settlers will go.
If a deal is done, a single referendum is expected on both the settlement and EU accession. Hard-liners complain at this: "if the government agrees and signs before a referendum, it's a blackmail" says Lyssarides "we rely on international solidarity, so people will vote yes even if it's a bad solution". Observers believe that the Greek Cypriot public is more positive, pragmatic and realistic than many of the politicians and will vote for a compromise solution. But this certainly cannot be guaranteed.
If a full deal cannot be reached, a fallback position could be agreement on a set of political principles or framework, annexed to the EU accession treaty. If even this is a step too far, then a divided Cyprus will join the European Union and the Brussels policy of linking accession and reunification will have failed.
Greek Cypriots are sanguine at this prospect not least because they see their bargaining power rising once they are in the EU. But such a situation would deal a major blow to EU-Turkey relations. And it is the Turkish Cypriot opposition leaders who are most concerned at such a prospect. Huseyin Angolemli, leader of the Communal Liberation Party in northern Cyprus, predicts that many more Turkish Cypriots will emigrate if a divided Cyprus joins. "Everything will be destroyed" he says "because our people will be in a hopeless position".
The possibility of a breakthrough settlement is there. But hard bargaining and immensely complex diplomacy will be involved in getting to a solution and in selling it to the public. The international spotlight is falling on Cyprus and the next few weeks will show the outcome.
· Kirsty Hughes is a European affairs specialist based in London and Brussels
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