Trump now the greatest of ALL TIME … at being least popular president

Trump has lost support across the board, in some cases dramatically. A YouGov poll of Americans last week showed that just 20% of adults under the age of 30 think he’s doing a good job, down from 50% six months ago. The Republicans and their allies like to claim that young American men have turned to the right – the facts suggest otherwise. He didn’t have a huge amount of support to begin with – both of his elections were won with less than 50% of the vote.

His unpopularity is worth noting, not just because it might make you feel better but because it jars with the conventional wisdom. Trump’s victory was supposedly a moment that indicated the world had changed: that liberalism was dead, diversity was loathed and action on climate change was unnecessary.

This sea change was, apparently, not just happening in America. In the UK, too, voters were supposedly shifting to the right. Inhumane immigration policy, crackdowns on universities and the politicisation of justice were the new centre ground.

But it turns out that flirting with fascism is not a vote-winning strategy. What’s striking is how Trump has lost support for the policies where he was supposed to be strongest: national security, immigration and the economy – in all three his net approval is now negative.

On immigration, this is particularly heartening. One of the most shocking parts of America’s descent into authoritarianism has been the sight of armed, masked men rounding up people with dark skin. The realisation that these actions may have cost Republicans votes is something to cling to.

But elections are about choices, and if the next presidential election is free and fair (what a phrase, by the way, to have to write about America), who the Democrats nominate as their candidate in 2028 will be crucial.

Two elections this week appear to show different paths. In New York City, the democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is favourite to become the city’s new mayor. Young, charismatic, a great communicator with clear, popular leftwing economic policies, he has captured the imagination of progressive voters desperate for hope across America (and beyond).

Three hundred miles or so south, Abigail Spanberger, a self-styled moderate Democrat, is hoping to become the new governor of Virginia. Strategists on the right of the party, including James Carville, have promoted Spanberger – a former CIA agent and congresswoman – as the model to follow.

What’s interesting, though, is their similarities. Both are campaigning on the cost of living; both are able to make a coherent argument that Trump’s economic policies are damaging; yet both are also able to make a positive, upbeat argument for why they should be in charge.

That’s something that was painfully missing from Kamala Harris’s campaign. Exactly one year on, if her new book is anything to judge by, she has failed to learn that lesson. But it seems that those likely to run in 2028 have. Whether it is California governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois governor JB Pritzker, or even New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, those with a realistic shot at the nomination are all able to combine a positive message with a pugnacious attack on Trump.

People vote for people, not policies. A boring democratic socialist who didn’t understand social media would not be leading the polls in New York, while a charisma-free Maga politician would not have won the 2024 presidential election.

If the Democrats choose the right candidate, they will start as favourites. In the coming months Trump’s support may sink lower as the reality of his economic policy hits the cost of living and healthcare premiums rise. A JD Vance or Marco Rubio – neither of whom have Trump’s star power – may struggle to defend an unpopular record.

I said at the start that no one has polled as badly at this stage of their presidency as Trump right now. Actually, there is one president who had less support: Donald Trump during his first term. Look, the man really is unpopular.

Photograph by HASNOOR HUSSAIN/POOL/AFP via Getty Images