Is Vanceism the next third way?

Could a similar transatlantic movement now be taking shape, again mostly on the right but including some on the pro-business centre-left?

So far the movement lacks the intellectual clarity and rigour of the neoliberals. It is not yet Vanceism, more a JD Vance vibe. It is infused with techno-optimism, by way of the vice president’s long-term billionaire backer Peter Thiel and other Silicon Valley titans.

It is also shaped by an upmarket cosmopolitan brand of born-again Christianity. Many of the Vance crew define themselves with narratives of personal conversion. They go to churches such as Holy Trinity Brompton in London (which counts wealthy donor Paul Marshall among its successful business members) and its Manhattan counterpart once led by the late pastor and prolific author Tim Keller, or worship in evangelical Roman Catholic churches broad-minded enough to accept Thiel’s homosexuality.

They are not especially pro-Trump, grateful as they may be for his unique political skills in opening the Overton Window to a wide-range of hitherto unthinkable policies. They would love power to pass to Vance sooner rather than later: God forbid a third Trump term.

Though seeking support from the Maga base or the disillusioned British working class, the Vance vibe is that of an educated elite, including many alumni of Oxbridge and the Ivy League. These are people who did very well from the globalisation era, but have been rapidly distancing themselves from the Davos Man global elite as public trust in it evaporated.

They blame the global elite for the rise of woke-ism, which they see as drowning western civilisation in multiculturalism, diversity and inclusion, cancelling and environmentalism, just as the clash of civilisation is intensifying again with the rise of China and radical Islam.

They are not necessarily climate-change deniers, but believe that innovative technology rather than criminalising carbon can save the day. They include women and ethnic minorities (foreign secretary David Lammy and Mrs Vance prominently), but hate new wave feminism and critical race theory. As for gender fluidity, they don’t want to waste time debating what a girl is.

Their latest bogeyman is the young woke immigrant Islamic New York mayoral candidate, Zohran Mamdani.

“Who the hell does he think he is?” thundered the veep in a recent speech after Mamdani dared to describe America as “beautiful, contradictory, unfinished” and promised to proudly “strive to make it better”. Exactly when America achieved perfection, or whether he really wants to return to that time, Vance was careful not to say. But giving off an air of superiority is certainly part of the Vance vibe.

This new movement favours hard power through defence spending over the soft power of international aid. Winning the coming artificial intelligence race will be crucial to the survival of Western civilisation. While not uniformly anti-abortion, the movement leans that way, and it is certainly pro-breeding, wanting people like them to have big families, perhaps more than one.

Last week’s Vance vacation aside, the most visible manifestation of this new transatlantic movement is the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, co-founded in 2023 by current CEO Baroness Philippa Stroud. In February it held its second global meeting, gathering 4,000 people in London in February to hear speakers ranging from the Republican leader of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage to Canadian woke-baiter Jordan Peterson, conservative New York Times columnist David Brooks, conservative author Douglas Murray and historian Niall Ferguson and his wife, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, who has announced her conversion from Islam to Christianity. Some speakers made some good points about important issues, while others spouted nonsense.

These are early days for this movement, whose large board of advisors include philosophy professor James Orr, Tory MP Danny Kruger, political scientist Bjorn Lomborg, philanthropist Chris Chandler, former Australian PMs John Howard and Tony Abbot and Indigenous Australian MP Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, US senator Mike Lee and Labour peer Maurice Glasman.

It may yet evolve in some positive directions. Or it could conceivably end up promoting techno-fascism or a real-life version of the Handmaid’s Tale.

Photograph by Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images