Maga says there’s a Christian genocide in Nigeria. Experts disagree

President Trump has said he’ll stop all US aid to Nigeria and send in his military “guns-a-blazing” if it “continues to allow the killing of Christians”. His defence secretary responded: “Yes sir.”

So what? This is not a fever dream. Since at least the late 90s, there has been violent conflict in parts of northern and central Nigeria, often initiated by herdsmen from the country’s Fulani ethnic group. Violence has intensified recently: earlier this year more than 100 people were killed in the rural village of Yelwata. Experts say the attacks are driven by

• land disputes between the nomadic herdsmen and rural farmers;
• access to resources; and
• religion: the vast majority of Fulani herdsmen are Muslim and many of the people who have been killed are Christian.

Multiple players. People living in the north and in Nigeria’s middle-belt, also have to contend with regular attacks from terrorist group Boko Haram and its offshoot – Islamic State West African Province.

A country divided. There are more than 250 ethnic groups in Nigeria. The Fulani, one of the largest, are a nomadic group although millions live in northern Nigeria.

There’s nothing you can do to take me away from my God. Of almost 220 million Nigerians, just over 50% identify as Muslim and just under 40% are Christian. Bola Tinubu, Nigeria’s president, is a Muslim whose wife, Remi, is a Christian pastor.

Most Muslims live in the north, most Christians in the south. There is more of a mix in the middle of the country where northerners and southerners regularly brush up against each other. This split is, in part, due to colonialism – Islam was introduced to what is today northern Nigeria many centuries ago by North Africans, while European missionaries started making headway in southern Nigeria after the establishment of a British Protectorate in 1900.

Help wanted. For decades, Nigerians have called for international support against terrorism. Now, it seems lawmakers in the UK, Europe and the US are paying attention. Earlier this year, Republican senator Ted Cruz proposed a bill that would require the US to impose sanctions on Nigerian officials who “tolerate” religious violence and, on Friday, Trump announced Nigeria had been re-designated a country of particular concern, after Biden had taken Nigeria off the religious freedom watchlist in 2021.

Magavangelism. This year, many rightwing influencers and politicians in the US have called attention to the killing of Christians in Nigeria. Even Nicki Minaj, the rapper, has weighed in, thanking Trump “for taking this seriously”. Many on the Maga right say the lack of media coverage of this issue is evidence of a growing global anti-Christian sentiment.

Christian genocide? In response to Trump, President Tinubu said: “The characterisation of Nigeria as religiously intolerant does not reflect our national reality.” Terrorist groups in Nigeria have killed both Muslims and Christians. Several Christian advocacy groups say the number of Christians killed in Nigeria far outnumbers the number of Muslims killed, with one Nigeria-based group suggesting more than 50,000 Christians have been killed since 2009.

However, research by an independent US group indicates that of the 11,862 attacks on Nigerian civilians between January 2020 and September 2025, only 350 involved Christians being targeted due to their religion.

By the numbers:

120 million – Muslims in Nigeria

93 million – Christians in Nigeria

10,217 – minimum number of people killed in Nigeria since Bola Tinubu became president

What’s more… Presidential advisor Massad Boulous, a Lebanese-Nigerian-American businessman whose son is married to Tiffany Trump, has gone on the record to say he thinks there is no Christian genocide in Nigeria. Trump doesn’t seem to be listening to him.

Photograph by Sunday Alamba/AP